Thinking outside the box part 2

So I just discovered a cool new feature in ICMizer that allows you to analyze any pre-flop situation i.e. those spots where there are at least 2 actions before you pre-flop that SNG wizard couldn't deal with, so I thought I would revisit my last post and try to explain the situation in greater depths and convey just how bad calling off with some hands would be and to demonstrate how raise-folding/effective shoving is much superior to shoving all-in in those spots when you're short stacked on the bubble. See previous post for the hand history.

So I've replicated the situation in ICMizer to give the hero a limp and the other stacks all-ins. Since it seems all pre-flop situations are now analyzable in ICMizer, there's no need for any boring longhand written ICM calculations; to perform the calculation and get some answers all we'll have to do is estimate both opponent's hand ranges – plug that in, then we'll be able to see just how bad calling off with certain hands in this situation will be.

Estimating Sbs range

Estimating an opponent's hand range is a difficult thing to do in poker, it requires a lot of studying of various spots and experience and repeating situations over and over. In this situation, the SB is a decent reg and I have 1.5bbs so almost any two cards are just about good enough to take me all-in. However, he is still shoving by the Bb so he is effectively shoving for 15bbs so he likely won't be any two, although he'll rarely expect to be called by the mid-stack here. With this in mind, I've assigned him a range of 63% of cards estimating that he'll limp everything from about 63% to 90% then maybe fold the most absolute of junk – the bottom 10% of cards.

Estimating Bbs range

Estimating the Bbs range is a bit more tricky; I now have the benefit of knowing he called off with 8s in this spot which is really bad, so clearly he has little understanding of ICM. In the small sample of hands I have on his HUD, his VPIP/PR are 18/6 with a BBFTS of 43, so he's definitely passive but not super loose. Given this, I've assigned him a subjective range of 9.65% of cards which is 5s+/A-10o+/A-9s+; I'm guessing if he's bad enough to call off with 8s here he'll likely call off with a bunch of other hands he shouldn't with as well such as A-9s and A-10o and a few more pairs.

Since he is a fish and won't be considering the ICM of this situation, it probably hasn't even occurred to him that I can fold in this spot when the action is back on me once the two other stacks are all-in; his thought process is more likely to be: “well, this guy on the BTN has 225 chips committed and only 76 chips behind now, he isn't folding with those amazing pot odds”. This might mean his range for calling off is much wider than the range I initially estimated i.e. he may easily just call off with the top 20% of hands here if he feels the big stack is pushing wide given he won't be expecting the hero to fold. If this was true, it just means calling off would be even worse for the hero given the big stack will have more equity against the mid-stack (thus in theory the hero coasting into the money more often upon folding when the action returns).

So let's take a look at the situation in ICMizer: 

So in this example, I've input the ranges I initially estimated for each player (63%/9.65%).

And as you can see, calling off with A-5o would cost us 8.46% in equity of the prize pool. In this $60 buy-in, that equates to $28.26 in money (almost half of our buy-in)....MASSIVE!!! As I've already elaborated on in previous posts, mistakes that cost you 1% in equity are pretty big so you can understand just how bad it would be to call off here. And infact, you can actually see that the suggested range for calling off (displayed in green) here is pocket Aces. Calling off with Ks is marginally -EV and calling off with Qs costs 1.6% in equity which is pretty damn bad. That may shock some of you but it's pretty simple: since we're so short on chips our equity remains really low so there's not a whole load of value in tripling up and we've got a much better shot at making money by allowing the other stacks to collide. This would be a different story if we had a 1k/1.2k stack, and you would definitely be calling off with Qs since you stand to gain a lot more tournament equity since you'll have at least a third of the chips in play if you win and there's some merit to your stack, so in that case it is worth the risk of having to overcome both opponent's hands relative to the gain.

As I said earlier, since this fishy opponent clearly has no grasp on ICM, my estimations of his hand range may be off; it may be possible he calls off with around 20% of hands, so let's see how that affects things:

And as you can see, the range of AA remains the same but you can see that calling off with different hands costs more money. Calling off with A-5o costs almost an extra percent in equity, and pocket As declined from winning 1.75% of the pool to 1.37%. This is simply down to the fact the big stack has more equity vs the mid-stacks range as it has more hands in it, and so the chances of us cashing increases.

The bottom line is, always non-all-in shove as the short stack on the bubble on the chance both the other opponent's end up all-in and you can give yourself the chance to fold and a better shot overall at making money.

Summing up, the mid-stack's play is devastatingly bad and his range for calling off should be Ks+ but I won't go into too much depths about that, I wanted to focus on the play of the hero's stack in this hand and hopefully the above is enough to convince you that you need to be calling super tight as the short stack on the bubble when the other stacks end up all-in and almost with a non-existent range when crippled.

MikeyMcD45

Thinking outside the box

ICM at its finest

Hand Played on Pokerstars

Seat 3: Big Stack (5767 in chips)
Seat 4: Mid Stack (2932 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (301 in chips)
Big Stack: posts the ante 25
Mid stack: posts the ante 25
Hero: posts the ante 25
Big Stack: posts small blind 100
Mid stack: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ad 5s]
Hero: calls 200
Big Stack: raises 5542 to 5742 and is all-in
Mid Stack: calls 2707 and is all-in
Hero: folds AND LEAVES 76 CHIPS BEHIND!
Uncalled bet (2835) returned to Big Stack
*** FLOP *** [3c 5h 2c]
*** TURN *** [3c 5h 2c] [6s]
*** RIVER *** [3c 5h 2c 6s] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Big Stack: shows [7c 5c] (a flush, Queen high)
Mid Stack: shows [8d 8s] (a pair of Eights)
Big Stack collected 6089 from pot
Mid Stack finished the tournament in 3rd place
Seat 6: Hero (button) folded before Flop
Hero coasts into the money J

This hand should act as a key reminder of the importance of ICM for new or upcoming SNG players.

I’ve just lost an all-in and find myself cripple stacked on the button, and glance down at A-5o, easy shove right? Well, it would be if you weren’t too clued up on the concept of ICM and I’m fairly certain at least 99% of players would shove here. On the other hand, I believe it to be the second best play. We are 1.5bbs deep so it’s pretty clear we have no fold equity against either opponent – that’s to say we won’t be able to get either player to fold if we shove all-in, especially the BB who will have a profitable call with 100% of cards regardless of our range pretty much.

What does this mean?

This means limping becomes the preferred option because if we limp and both the stacks end up all-in pre-flop, we can then fold in hope that the big stack eliminates the mid-stack and we coast into the money since a 6max SNG pays the top two finishes. This gives us a much better shot at making money overall since if we were to shove and end up in a 3 way all-in we would have to beat both opponent’s hands to stay in the tournament since we’re the short stack and that will be difficult with A-5o in a 3 way all-in. And even so, if we triple up, we will still only have 4bbs and will definitely be in need of more future double-ups to get back into the match before thinking about making money, so our best shot at making money in the long run will be to limp-fold and leave our stack super crippled.

There’s two counter arguments to this strategy that may make some of you sceptical:

1.    It’s even worse for our equity when the mid-stack wins the all-in since our stack becomes super crippled and we’ll almost definitely bust.

2.    Usually the mid-stacks range for getting it in will usually be much stronger.

The latter isn’t necessarily true if the mid-stack has no grasp of ICM, but for most part, assuming the mid-stack isn’t a complete idiot they should win more of the time meaning we’ll go on to bust more of the time and therefore not make money as often.

So let’s take a look at the numbers to see if we can make some sense of it all:

·        Equity of our stack pre-flop = 4.83%

·        Equity of our stack if we limp-fold and big stack wins = 35.25%

·        Equity of our stack if we limp-fold and mid stack wins = 1.30%

·        Equity of our stack if we limp-call and lose = 0%
 

So, as we’re very really low on chips the equity of our hand before the cards are dealt is 4.83%. If we limp-fold and the mid-stack wins, we’ll be left with 76 chips and our equity will drop to 1.30% - not so great! Needless to say, if we limp-call off and lose we’ll eliminate in 3^rd place and our equity will be equal to 0%. However, as you can see, if we limp-fold and the big stack wins, we’ll coast into the money and given that a 6max SNG rewards 2nd place 35% of the prize pool, our equity will take a staggering rise from 4.83% from when the cards were dealt pre-flop to 35.25% - that’s massive!

Indeed, if the mid-stack is solid and has a really skinny range for getting it in here then the majority of times they will win and we will be left with that stack resembling 1.30% in equity. However, we only lose 3.53% in equity when this happens (4.83% – 1.30%) and when comparing this to the times the big stack wins, our equity increases by 30.42% (35.25% – 4.83%) and that's guaranteed money. And remember, even if the mid-stacks range is much tighter than the big stack’s when the cash goes in, suck-outs can always happen too!

Conclusion

So the conclusion is even if the mid-stack will win the majority of the time, limp-folding is still the preferred option since the equity we gain is so huge the times the big stack wins, and on top of this, since we’re so short our equity is that negligible that we aren’t losing a lot by folding – we only drop 3.53% in equity, and the times we do commit to the hand and win the 3 way all-in (if we were to limp-call off), our equity is still considerably low since we’ll still only have 903 chips and we’ll almost certainly require future double-ups to make money.

As it was, both stacks got it in and luckily for me the big stack managed to beat the mid-stack and I coasted into the money with that 76 chip stack. Lucky for me indeed, but sometimes you just gotta make your own luck!

Live long and prosper

Life update/Future

It’s been a while! I really ought to try and be a bit more consistent with updating, but I’ll give a quick life update followed by brief future plans. I was going to add in a hand analysis as well but the post will likely be pretty dense, so I’ll leave that for a few more days.

Life update

So I moved to Albufeira in Portugal exactly one month ago yesterday. It was a rather spur of the moment decision having never been to Portugal before but it was always a dream of mine to grind abroad if I turned professional, and it would be a shame not to make the most of the advantages being a poker pro offers. I haven’t really been fluid yet with my hours at the tables; it took 2 weeks to get the net set up, and there’s always plenty of distractions here that makes it somewhat difficult to log in proper hours – must change this in the coming weeks!

The place itself is great, great weather, nice beach, good food and the nightlife is really booming – too many nights I’ve planned to grind yet found myself tanking shots at the nearest bar ;) …when really I should be tanking money at the tables, haha…

I will do my best to try get some photos up soon, and may even make a video, so stay tuned!

The future

My stakee was planning on moving here at some point to join me at the grind, but recent law changes mean that to stay in Portugal beyond 3 months, you need to gain a residency certificate. This basically means I’m eligible to stay here until September 6^th before I’d have to leave. It sounds like a massive hassle gaining a residency certificate, although one way of potentially combating this may be to move back to the UK for a short period of time then jetting back out, but there may not be a whole load of value moving back to what will basically be a Ghost town beyond September.

Supernova Elite

With the above in mind, I’ve already started thinking about the future. I’ve been putting serious thought into attempting a Supernova Elite chase on Pokerstars in 2014. I want to constantly push myself to the limits and keep evolving as a poker player; I think it’s important to see clear signs of moving forward so you’re able to consistently yield good motivation and desire, otherwise the job itself would get fairly monotonous I think. This may also help me structure my hours better and practice scheduling my sessions in the coming months (something I’d definitely have to do next year if doing an SNE run) and therefore getting in better volume too.

For anyone reading who isn’t clued up about Supernova Elite; Pokerstars rewards players who play more/pay the site in rake, so achieving Supernova Elite itself is worth $100k. In other words, if you break-even at the tables and achieve Supernova Elite, you’ve had a $100k year, if you lose $20k at the tables, you’ve had an $80k year. Sounds too good to be true, right? Exactly… Achieving Supernova Elite basically means grinding your ass off all year long and as far as I’m aware there are less than 1000 players online who have achieved this ever; this number is completely miniscule when taking into account the number of people that play online poker. Needless to say, it’s one of those things that’s much easier said than done and will require shit loads of hard work. I’ll talk more about it in future posts and the preparation for it and important qualities and skills I think are essential to achieve it should I become more intent on going for it.

Budapest

Right now, I’m thinking of moving back to the UK in early September for a couple of weeks to catch up with friends/family, then jetting out to stay in Budapest for a couple of months. Should I enjoy my stay in Budapest I may elect to move there next year for the epic grind if I’m chasing SNE; I would ideally live with other poker players when grinding an insane amount to keep life interesting and the mind active.
Whilst there, I plan on trialling the pace of Supernova Elite over the course of a 2-3 week period. This will give me a real indication of what I’m in for next year and exactly how many hours I would need to average each week given the number of games I play and my average stake. Above all, this will let me know whether playing the necessary crazy volume is something I would enjoy or not; I don’t believe in sacrificing life EV/happiness just to make more money so if I felt I would be miserable with little time to spend outside poker, I won’t bother going for it. One of the greatest advantages of being a poker pro is the freedom it brings and I don’t see the point in being a slave to gain more money if you’ll struggle to find time to actually enjoy it. In any case, these are all just ideas at the moment, so we’ll see what ends up materialising!

That’s all for now really, I will be updating really soon with another hand analysis, so until then!

MikeyMcD45