Friday 13 May 2022

Back from the dead

It's been a cool 9 years since my last blog post and since I'm mixing in some MTTs again I thought it would be a good time to get some analysis on the go and officially return from the dead

Whilst I don't expect anyone to read it I'm doing it for myself as much as anything, I always found typing up my own thought process was the best way to learn and improve

For good or bad I don't play professionally anymore but here's a recent hand I had during the late stages of an MTT. We're heads up and I have a significant chip advantage over villain:





PRE-FLOP: 
I’m dealt Q-Q and villain has ~10bbs so I limp pre-flop to encourage jams and it also disguises the strength of my hand post-flop. against top regs I’ll often limp here to balance my range so I can profitably limp with weaker holdings to stab with on the flop

FLOP: Ah-6c-Kc
villain checks and I elect to check back. with two overcards it doesn’t look like a favourable flop for my hand but considering he checked back pre-flop we can almost eliminate all A-x and K-x from his range. so it’s not a great board in the sense I probably won’t get any action but in terms of being ahead and how I match up against his range it is a pretty good board

TURN: 3d
villain checks and I elect to check back again for two reasons: 1) to induce river bluffs and 2) let him catch a piece of something he can check-call with on the river. betting here would be reasonable as well but this time I opted to check with the intentions of value betting on the river and especially because it doesn’t appear he has all that much. in fact, to go all Scottish it would appear villain has the square root of hee-haw 

RIVER: 2c
the river brings the 2c and although this completes a flush it’s a pretty nothing card really. considering he checked both the flop and turn we can eliminate flushes from his range since flush draws would almost certainly bet the turn, if not lead the flop. once again villain checks and I value bet 130k into 200k and he snap check-raises to 400k leaving 330k chips behind. at first this appears pretty nutted - he check-raises more than half his stack in and will be leaving himself crippled if he loses the hand. he done it quickly as well like he was planning it which indicates strength but we need to start breaking down his range. we’ve already disregarded A-x, K-x and flushes so what else is he repping? any two pair combinations on the turn would probably bet for value on the turn to start growing the pot and to protect against flush draws whilst you would expect the 5-4 straight to just bet out on the river for value so there’s really not a whole lot he’s representing. after all, how likely am I to bet on the river having checked back twice already? holding the Qc specifically I’m blocking flushes but I didn’t even factor that into my decision. I snap called only for him to table 5-3o for a pair of 3s, in other words 4th pair turned into a bluff


so what about his move?

from his perspective he’s unblocking flushes holding the 3c and unblocking the 5-4 straight holding the 5 which could be the thought process behind his move. more than likely he’s just trying to exploit the fact I limped pre-flop and double checked post-flop on the A high board and so ‘I can’t have anything’ - the last hand he probably expects me to have here is Q-Q and from his point of view I certainly can’t have connected with the A or K. I think this is probably the key to his move – the fact I’ve limped pre-flop and checked down to the river on the A high board. he might feel he doesn’t need to rep much for his move to be profitable but he’s essentially turning a bluff catching hand into a bluff. from his point of view if I’m bluffing a lot on this river then it begs the question why not click ‘call’. the only good thing about his move is he has decent unblocking cards as opposed to a random 7-8o hand but even that might be a stretch and it’s impossible to know whether he’s even thinking on that level. I still think if he thinks I’m bluffing he can check-call otherwise just find a check-fold

a key hand which seen me scoop over half of villain's stack before going on to seal the tournament a few hands later

Live long and prosper
MikeyMcD45