Thinking outside the box

ICM at its finest

Hand Played on Pokerstars

Seat 3: Big Stack (5767 in chips)
Seat 4: Mid Stack (2932 in chips)
Seat 6: Hero (301 in chips)
Big Stack: posts the ante 25
Mid stack: posts the ante 25
Hero: posts the ante 25
Big Stack: posts small blind 100
Mid stack: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ad 5s]
Hero: calls 200
Big Stack: raises 5542 to 5742 and is all-in
Mid Stack: calls 2707 and is all-in
Hero: folds AND LEAVES 76 CHIPS BEHIND!
Uncalled bet (2835) returned to Big Stack
*** FLOP *** [3c 5h 2c]
*** TURN *** [3c 5h 2c] [6s]
*** RIVER *** [3c 5h 2c 6s] [Qc]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
Big Stack: shows [7c 5c] (a flush, Queen high)
Mid Stack: shows [8d 8s] (a pair of Eights)
Big Stack collected 6089 from pot
Mid Stack finished the tournament in 3rd place
Seat 6: Hero (button) folded before Flop
Hero coasts into the money J

This hand should act as a key reminder of the importance of ICM for new or upcoming SNG players.

I’ve just lost an all-in and find myself cripple stacked on the button, and glance down at A-5o, easy shove right? Well, it would be if you weren’t too clued up on the concept of ICM and I’m fairly certain at least 99% of players would shove here. On the other hand, I believe it to be the second best play. We are 1.5bbs deep so it’s pretty clear we have no fold equity against either opponent – that’s to say we won’t be able to get either player to fold if we shove all-in, especially the BB who will have a profitable call with 100% of cards regardless of our range pretty much.

What does this mean?

This means limping becomes the preferred option because if we limp and both the stacks end up all-in pre-flop, we can then fold in hope that the big stack eliminates the mid-stack and we coast into the money since a 6max SNG pays the top two finishes. This gives us a much better shot at making money overall since if we were to shove and end up in a 3 way all-in we would have to beat both opponent’s hands to stay in the tournament since we’re the short stack and that will be difficult with A-5o in a 3 way all-in. And even so, if we triple up, we will still only have 4bbs and will definitely be in need of more future double-ups to get back into the match before thinking about making money, so our best shot at making money in the long run will be to limp-fold and leave our stack super crippled.

There’s two counter arguments to this strategy that may make some of you sceptical:

1.    It’s even worse for our equity when the mid-stack wins the all-in since our stack becomes super crippled and we’ll almost definitely bust.

2.    Usually the mid-stacks range for getting it in will usually be much stronger.

The latter isn’t necessarily true if the mid-stack has no grasp of ICM, but for most part, assuming the mid-stack isn’t a complete idiot they should win more of the time meaning we’ll go on to bust more of the time and therefore not make money as often.

So let’s take a look at the numbers to see if we can make some sense of it all:

·        Equity of our stack pre-flop = 4.83%

·        Equity of our stack if we limp-fold and big stack wins = 35.25%

·        Equity of our stack if we limp-fold and mid stack wins = 1.30%

·        Equity of our stack if we limp-call and lose = 0%
 

So, as we’re very really low on chips the equity of our hand before the cards are dealt is 4.83%. If we limp-fold and the mid-stack wins, we’ll be left with 76 chips and our equity will drop to 1.30% - not so great! Needless to say, if we limp-call off and lose we’ll eliminate in 3^rd place and our equity will be equal to 0%. However, as you can see, if we limp-fold and the big stack wins, we’ll coast into the money and given that a 6max SNG rewards 2nd place 35% of the prize pool, our equity will take a staggering rise from 4.83% from when the cards were dealt pre-flop to 35.25% - that’s massive!

Indeed, if the mid-stack is solid and has a really skinny range for getting it in here then the majority of times they will win and we will be left with that stack resembling 1.30% in equity. However, we only lose 3.53% in equity when this happens (4.83% – 1.30%) and when comparing this to the times the big stack wins, our equity increases by 30.42% (35.25% – 4.83%) and that's guaranteed money. And remember, even if the mid-stacks range is much tighter than the big stack’s when the cash goes in, suck-outs can always happen too!

Conclusion

So the conclusion is even if the mid-stack will win the majority of the time, limp-folding is still the preferred option since the equity we gain is so huge the times the big stack wins, and on top of this, since we’re so short our equity is that negligible that we aren’t losing a lot by folding – we only drop 3.53% in equity, and the times we do commit to the hand and win the 3 way all-in (if we were to limp-call off), our equity is still considerably low since we’ll still only have 903 chips and we’ll almost certainly require future double-ups to make money.

As it was, both stacks got it in and luckily for me the big stack managed to beat the mid-stack and I coasted into the money with that 76 chip stack. Lucky for me indeed, but sometimes you just gotta make your own luck!

Live long and prosper

Life update/Future

It’s been a while! I really ought to try and be a bit more consistent with updating, but I’ll give a quick life update followed by brief future plans. I was going to add in a hand analysis as well but the post will likely be pretty dense, so I’ll leave that for a few more days.

Life update

So I moved to Albufeira in Portugal exactly one month ago yesterday. It was a rather spur of the moment decision having never been to Portugal before but it was always a dream of mine to grind abroad if I turned professional, and it would be a shame not to make the most of the advantages being a poker pro offers. I haven’t really been fluid yet with my hours at the tables; it took 2 weeks to get the net set up, and there’s always plenty of distractions here that makes it somewhat difficult to log in proper hours – must change this in the coming weeks!

The place itself is great, great weather, nice beach, good food and the nightlife is really booming – too many nights I’ve planned to grind yet found myself tanking shots at the nearest bar ;) …when really I should be tanking money at the tables, haha…

I will do my best to try get some photos up soon, and may even make a video, so stay tuned!

The future

My stakee was planning on moving here at some point to join me at the grind, but recent law changes mean that to stay in Portugal beyond 3 months, you need to gain a residency certificate. This basically means I’m eligible to stay here until September 6^th before I’d have to leave. It sounds like a massive hassle gaining a residency certificate, although one way of potentially combating this may be to move back to the UK for a short period of time then jetting back out, but there may not be a whole load of value moving back to what will basically be a Ghost town beyond September.

Supernova Elite

With the above in mind, I’ve already started thinking about the future. I’ve been putting serious thought into attempting a Supernova Elite chase on Pokerstars in 2014. I want to constantly push myself to the limits and keep evolving as a poker player; I think it’s important to see clear signs of moving forward so you’re able to consistently yield good motivation and desire, otherwise the job itself would get fairly monotonous I think. This may also help me structure my hours better and practice scheduling my sessions in the coming months (something I’d definitely have to do next year if doing an SNE run) and therefore getting in better volume too.

For anyone reading who isn’t clued up about Supernova Elite; Pokerstars rewards players who play more/pay the site in rake, so achieving Supernova Elite itself is worth $100k. In other words, if you break-even at the tables and achieve Supernova Elite, you’ve had a $100k year, if you lose $20k at the tables, you’ve had an $80k year. Sounds too good to be true, right? Exactly… Achieving Supernova Elite basically means grinding your ass off all year long and as far as I’m aware there are less than 1000 players online who have achieved this ever; this number is completely miniscule when taking into account the number of people that play online poker. Needless to say, it’s one of those things that’s much easier said than done and will require shit loads of hard work. I’ll talk more about it in future posts and the preparation for it and important qualities and skills I think are essential to achieve it should I become more intent on going for it.

Budapest

Right now, I’m thinking of moving back to the UK in early September for a couple of weeks to catch up with friends/family, then jetting out to stay in Budapest for a couple of months. Should I enjoy my stay in Budapest I may elect to move there next year for the epic grind if I’m chasing SNE; I would ideally live with other poker players when grinding an insane amount to keep life interesting and the mind active.
Whilst there, I plan on trialling the pace of Supernova Elite over the course of a 2-3 week period. This will give me a real indication of what I’m in for next year and exactly how many hours I would need to average each week given the number of games I play and my average stake. Above all, this will let me know whether playing the necessary crazy volume is something I would enjoy or not; I don’t believe in sacrificing life EV/happiness just to make more money so if I felt I would be miserable with little time to spend outside poker, I won’t bother going for it. One of the greatest advantages of being a poker pro is the freedom it brings and I don’t see the point in being a slave to gain more money if you’ll struggle to find time to actually enjoy it. In any case, these are all just ideas at the moment, so we’ll see what ends up materialising!

That’s all for now really, I will be updating really soon with another hand analysis, so until then!

MikeyMcD45

The Hero Call

Hand played on Pokerstars

Seat 4 is the button

Seat 1: Hero ( $5230.00 USD )

Seat 4: Villain ( $3770.00 USD )

Villain posts small blind [$100.00 USD].

Hero posts big blind [$200.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Hero [  Qh Kh ]

Villain calls [$100.00 USD]

Hero raises [$350.00 USD]

Villain calls [$350.00 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5s, 4s, 3s ]

Hero bets [$565.00 USD]

Villain calls [$565.00 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 4c ]

Hero bets [$685.00 USD]

Villain calls [$685.00 USD]

** Dealing River ** [ Jh ]

Hero checks

Villain bets [$1970.00 USD]

Hero calls [$1970.00 USD]

Villain shows [8c, 6s ]

Hero shows [Qh, Kh ]

Hero wins $7540.00 USD from main pot

In this hand I’m up against a fairly poor regular. I don’t really have any killer reads on him except he is way too loose when it comes to defending pre-flop and won’t fold lightly post-flop either. He is aggressive enough and plays more hands than he should.

PRE-FLOP:

So my opponent limps and I’m dealt KQ suited in the BB. Against a limp this hand is way too good to check pre-flop so I must raise for value since I’m way ahead of my opponent’s limping range. This will also hand me control of the pot post-flop. Even though I'm out of position, I’m not too displeased about his call since his stats suggest he isn’t a passive player and is fairly aggressive so with the limp-call I can immediately remove any A, any pair and probably a couple of good Ks from his range as those hands will likely raise, especially with a HU raise of 34% in the small sample of hands I have on him for HU play. On top of that, my hand plays well post-flop and I should never be dominated here whilst dominating a fair chunk of his range.

FLOP: 5s-4s-3s

So I’ve completely missed but elect to c-bet, you can’t be raising it up pre-flop and check-folding post-flop when you miss otherwise that’s pretty exploitable. You can make an exception when up against a maniac but this guy isn't one, so a half pot bet looks good and he flats. At this point, I’m not overly worried – I think his range is fairly open to two random overcards with a flush draw, a straight draw, perhaps a pair of 5s and a flopped flush which is the least likely from all those combinations. I’m discounting a set from his range and the A2 wheel because those hands would or at least should raise pre-flop and a limp-call with a small pocket pair would be a very rare and unusual line from a regular given how poorly they play post-flop. I also don’t think there’s too many 3s or 4s in his limp-calling range pre-flop and one would imagine any 5s would raise for protection on this soaking wet draw heavy board (although I can’t rule it out), so my real concern lies with a spade hitting the board really.

TURN: 4c

Some people might just check and be done with the hand once called on the flop, but the 4 is actually a great card to barrel on, especially if we felt his range on the flop was weighted to overcards with a flush draw since if we didn’t think there was much chance of him having a 4 before, it’s much less likely now, so betting serves two purposes: to protect our hand the times we are ahead and extract value from draws.

I decide to bet 685 into a pot of 2230. I could potentially have bet a little more, my bet lays him pot odds of 19% whilst if he has a hand like 8-9 with a flush draw he’ll have around 30% equity with just one card to come, so if that’s the case I probably need to bet more to make calling with such a hand unprofitable; however, it’s better than betting nothing and allowing him the option of a free card and avoids committing myself to an all-in with just K high should he shove on a bet. This will also leave stacks deep enough for a river bluff should a non-scare card hit and I elect to check, although I would have no problem in scooping the pot up right now with an unmade hand. However, he calls and we’re off to the river.

RIVER: Jh

So the Jh falls and I’ve got nothing but good ol’ K high. I did give quick consideration to shoving all-in at the time, but when I started to break down my opponent’s hand range from the information I gathered from his actions on each street, there didn't seem like a lot of merit to this line. We already eliminated the possibility of A high and a flopped set/straight from his range, so to decide what move will maximise our $EV we need to assign villain a hand range and work out what those hands will do if we check and if we bet.

First off, if we shove, any hand that has us beat here will call due to the nature of the board – if he has a flopped flush he’s calling, if I was wrong and he has 4s in his range he’s calling, an unlikely 5 will probably call with overwhelming pot odds, and if he’s hit that J he’s calling. Whilst, if we shove, any hand worse than ours will ALWAYS fold since we have K high (unless he’s some kind of Superman hero) so that includes many hands such as 7-8/8-9/10-9/Q-9/Q-10 to name a few that floated with or without a flush draw. Simply put, if we aren’t folding out any better hands from shoving and always folding out worse hands, then it means we can check and invite a bluffing range from some of those hands mentioned above that we are ahead of that can bet but cannot call a bet. This of course would be a disaster for our equity if villain were to ever show up with A high on the river as a bluff (assuming he were to fold to a shove) but in this instance we strongly disregarded the possibility of an A in his range given his tendencies and his pre-flop actions, so we must stick with our read. Against a more passive opponent, there’s no doubt betting would likely be superior to check-calling if they were to choose to bluff with A high in this spot. It would also be rather unfortunate if villain showed up with a J and value bet us, but there is no way to account for that and avoid check-calling out of fear if it’s just as likely he’ll shove 8-9o/10-9o and so on. Besides, with good pot odds of 2.83 to 1 we only need to be right more than 26% of the time to make money on the call which means we only need villain to be bluffing just over 1 in 4 times with his missed draws in this spot, and with a player with an AF of 2.5 and seemingly enough fold equity, I would say this is more than likely.

So, I do check and our villain makes a bet of 1.9k all-in into the 3.6k. My plan was to check and call a bet so I must stand by that and villain shows up with 8-6o for a busted open-ended straight flush draw, and the hero shows that he is indeed a hero in this hand.

Live long and prosper

MikeyMcD45

Check-raising the river

Hand played on Pokerstars

Table 669005882 1 (Real Money)

Seat 5 is the button

Seat 1: Hero ( $3850.00 USD )

Seat 2: Villain ( $2940.00 USD )

Seat 5: Player 1 ( $2210.00 USD )

Hero posts small blind [$100.00 USD].

Villain posts big blind [$200.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Hero [  Td 2d ]

Jahoo180 folds

Hero calls [$100.00 USD]

Villain checks

** Dealing Flop ** [ 7d, Ts, 4s ]

Hero bets [$210.00 USD]

Villain calls [$210.00 USD]

** Dealing Turn ** [ 9d ]

Hero bets [$310.00 USD]

Villain calls [$310.00 USD]

** Dealing River ** [ 8d ]

Hero checks

Villain bets [$200.00 USD]

Hero raises [$1420.00 USD]

Villain calls [$1220.00 USD]

Hero shows [Td, 2d ]

Hero wins $4280.00 USD from main pot

Villain doesn't show [4c, 6d ]

Another day, another hand analysis!

I thought I would focus a bit on numbers and utilising an opponent’s HUD in this hand to show how it affected my decision-making and ultimately led to maximising my $EV. Poker is constantly about adapting to the most extreme of your opponent’s.

PRE-FLOP

So, it’s the bubble and I have the big stack – perfect spot to attack both players with a string of min-raises and shoves right? Well, it would be against opponent’s who understood ICM and the fact they have to be calling all-in very tight here. The button has folded, and I’m dealt 10-2 suited against an opponent whose stats represent the ultimate loose-passive player if ever I’ve seen one. Over a sample of 245 hands he’s playing with a VPIP of 47 and raise of 6 indicating he likes to do more calling than betting or raising and an AF of 0.3 fits in line with those other stats to confirm some serious passivity.

The question is then, how do we act pre-flop with all this in mind?

Shove?

Some people may be tempted to shove, especially once they grasp ICM and the power of the big stack, but here I don’t like it. I’m figuring with his HUD stats he’s the sort of player who won’t understand ICM and therefore call well above the average range in this spot. A quick gander into SNG wizard (an ICM calculator) confirms that if he’s calling shoves as wide as 24% of cards which is down to A-2o (which could easily be true), then shoving 10-2dd will cost exactly 1% in equity which in this $60 buy-in equates to $3.34 in money. That’s not a very attractive long-term proposition!

Raise?

Glancing at his big blind fold to steal (BBFTS) and fold to flop bet (FTFB) which are 44% and 20% respectively, I don’t like raising since he’ll flat call a lot and we’re bloating the pot OOP with an unconnected hand that doesn’t flop too well. Furthermore, bloating the pot OOP isn’t too good since he won’t be giving up on too many flops either.

Fold?

What about just open-folding? Some players might factor in heavily that this opponent won’t be folding a lot pre and post-flop and just fold with what appears a trash hand, but I don’t like that either!

So, what do I like then? Limping!

Limp!

The fact is, we’re getting 3 to 1 pot odds on a limp so given our call will represent 25% of the pot, we only need our hand to have anything above 25% equity against our opponent’s range for limping to be profitable, assuming we get to see a flop, turn and river. Our opponent will have a random hand in the BB which is 100% of cards, and according to Pokerstove 10-2 suited has exactly 44.84% equity against this range. This means you definitely want to limp it, and when looking at the numbers suddenly folding doesn’t seem too good. This of course does assume the 5 card community board runs out – if our opponent was particularly aggressive pre-flop and attacks limps very wide we may not be able to see flops all too often meaning our equity might not count for as much as 44.84%. However, against this player it’s not something to be concerned about giving over those 245 hands his BB raise SB limp is 0%. Indeed, this is a small sample and this number is certain to be inaccurate since one would imagine he would raise premium pairs at least; nonetheless, it’s doubtful his true BB raise SB limp will be greater than 5% with knowledge of his stats thus far. If this is true then folding would be a mistake giving the equity of our hand (44.84%) combined with pot odds (25%) so for those sceptical about limping because we "won't be able to bluff this opponent" the maths tells us that limping to play solely on a HTW basis will be profitable giving how often we can expect to win the pot.

FLOP: 7d-10s-4s

So I flop top pair, and there’s a myriad of flush and straight draws out there. I must bet for value and protection, and also to define where I am in the hand which will make it easier to put my opponent on a range. With an AF of 0.3, he’s bound to call with any 10 whether he has me beat or not, all of his draws and may even flat with two pair being the very passive player he is. I figure 210 into a pot of 400 is enough, and with a FTFB of 20% it’s not too much of a surprise he’s called.

TURN: 9d

The turn is a good enough card, it only fills the 6-8/J-8 straight draws whilst brings me a backdoor flush draw. It must be bet, firstly for protection against the flush and straight draws that remain and for value against 7s and 4s or straight draw hands like 9-8/9-6 that now have a piece since it’s unlikely this opponent will be folding any of those. A bet of 310 into 820 looks good – this is small enough it’s reasonably likely to eek out value from worse pairs such as a 7 or a 4, yet just enough to deny him correct pot odds to profitably call with a flush or straight draw with just one card to come.

RIVER: 8d

This is a great card and has given me a rather disguised looking back-door flush. It would seem like a great spot to bet against the passive player and extract more value, but on this particular river card I decided to give checking some thought. Firstly, my hand is extremely disguised so he can’t fear the diamond flush and check hands that would normally bet. If the 2 of spades fell for instance giving me two pair but bringing the flush, I would definitely bet small for value – he may elect to check back some two pair hands as the more likelier of the flush I would appear to have has come in so that would be a good reason to bet. Furthermore, flush draws are in his range so this would also allow me to fold to a raise whilst still getting value from worse hands since the passive player is super unlikely to raise as a bluff in this spot, especially with an AF of 0.3, raise of 6 and steal of 8.

This card however seems a good one to check since the turn and river appear to hit his range solidly: if he has the 5-6 OESD he’s just got there and will most likely bet, if he had any pair all along with a 6 in it such as 7-6/4-6/10-6 which are all in his range he’s got there, any low pair with a random J is now a straight, 8-9 for the OESD on the flop is now two pair which could conceivably bet given I’ve checked and am not showing any real strength on the river. Whilst all this, any busted flush draw he has cannot call a bet but may bet as a bluff; indeed his AF is 0.3 so I wouldn’t count on it but so long as he has some value hands in his betting range then checking can’t be too bad and there’s no harm in giving him the chance to bluff. The goal will then be to raise and gain more value from his entire range than having just led for around 675 or 750 and just received a flat-call. It’s very likely with this player’s passivity that he would just flat call with a straight, especially the dummy end, and if that is true I could probably get more value by checking and raising a bet.

So I opt for the check and he puts out a small bet of 200 into 1440. This really doesn't look too strong, and my estimations of his range at this point are likely two pair or a straight. I tank for a while trying to represent weakness before putting in a healthy raise to 1420. It doesn’t take him very long to snap it off, and he reveals 4-6o for the dummy end of the straight. If I could have done anything different to maximise my $EV in this hand then please let me know!

MikeyMcD45

Goals for 2013

2013: Let’s do it!

In 2013, I aim to play at least 30 hours of poker a week and will make efforts to start recording hours in a document to ensure I’m doing just that. I probably spend way more time than most reviewing my own play and studying the game, but going forward I intend to dedicate the majority of my time to playing. Whilst reviewing your own play and studying is great for the long run it’s also important to achieve balance: there’s not much value in spending 20 hours a week studying if it resulted in an hourly rate increase from $40 to $45 and only actually playing 10 hours for a profit of $450 when you could have just spent those 30 hours playing for the lower hourly of $40 and weekly profit of $1200. That’s not to say studying/perfecting your game won’t be great for your profits in the long run or long term hourly rate for that matter, but only when you’re able to start finally putting in the hours!

Volume goals/Leaderboard challenge

Increasing my hours by around 3x the amount also means increasing volume, so I plan on playing at least 12,000 SNGs this year. With the number of games I plan on playing this year combined with my average stake means I’ll be targeting around 400k VPPs – this should make for some pretty healthy yearly profits so long as I do well enough on the tables!

This year I’ll be focusing on $60 and $100 games, whilst playing lower when the running games are unfavourable, and table selecting above $100 stakes when the games are +EV. With this in mind, I’m going to challenge myself to finish the year ranked #1 in the world on the Sharkscope leaderboard “Hold’em 5-6 players turbo” across $36-$100 stakes. I was fortunate enough to achieve 6 Sharkscope stars this year, ranking specifically #9 in this leaderboard but more hours and more tables hopefully means I can challenge for that platinum star! Since I’m going to have to count on not running bad over a long sample or breaking even for like 6k games then I won’t regularly review my position, or set monetary goals at all in the year for that matter. Aside from it being a distraction, it might be pretty demotivating to set monetary goals and find yourself way behind targets, but I may put a few prop bets on with a couple of poker players for the leaderboard challenge which may aid motivation towards putting in good volume.

"NAAAAYYYY I’M A HORSE!!!!!!"

I’m also excited to report I’ve taken on a horse this year and will be staking him up to 100 BIs to play the $30 6max’s, and any profitable $60s that run. He’s already a very competent player, but I’ll be providing additional coaching and live sweat sessions throughout the year. It’s a pretty good deal for both of us I think and fingers crossed he has a good year after a torrid year of run-bad in 2012. I shall keep his identity anonymous for now, but I’ll be sure to report on how things are going!

Summary of goals:

In short, my goals for the year are:

• Play in the region of 30-40 hours of poker a week
• Play 12,000 SNGs
• Earn 400k VPPs
• Improve multi-tabling skills
• Maintain an average stake of at least $80
• Finish the year ranked #1 on SS leaderboard “Hold’em 5-6 players turbo, $36-$100”
• Spend around 30 minutes after a session reviewing key all-in hands
• Work on mental game
• Improve fitness
• In general, CRRUSSHHH!!!!!

I won’t bother elaborating too much on the last couple of goals, but I intend on updating each month with my volume and hours to ensure I’m putting the necessary work in and this should hopefully act as a good motivator.

That basically wraps up everything for now, watch out for a hand review to be posted in the next few days, and GL in 2013!!!

MikeyMcD45

Overjamming for value

Hand played on Pokerstars
Seat 2 is the button

Seat 1: Bowl 1 ( $1314.00 USD )

Seat 2: Bowl 2 ( $783.00 USD )

Seat 3: Player 1 ( $2996.00 USD )

Seat 4: Hero ( $1560.00 USD )

Seat 5: Player 2 ( $1047.00 USD )

Seat 6: Player 3 ( $1300.00 USD )

Player 1 posts small blind [$10.00 USD].

Hero posts big blind [$20.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Hero [  Ac 7d ]

Player 2 folds

Player 3 folds

Bowl 1 calls [$20.00 USD]

Bowl 2 raises [$40.00 USD]

Player 1 folds

Hero calls [$20.00 USD]

Bowl 1 calls [$20.00 USD]

** Dealing Flop ** [ 9d, 2c, 3c ]

Hero checks

Bowl 1 checks

Bowl 2 checks

** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]

Hero bets [$75.00 USD]

Bowl 1 calls [$75.00 USD]

Bowl 2 calls [$75.00 USD]

** Dealing River ** [ 5c ]

Hero bets [$1445.00 USD]

Bowl 1 calls [$1199.00 USD]

Bowl 2 calls [$668.00 USD]

Hero wins $246.00 USD

Hero shows [Ac, 7d ]

Bowl 1 shows [Ts, Kc ]

Hero wins $1062.00 USD from main pot

Bowl 2 shows [Qc, Ad ]

Hero wins $2359.00 USD from main pot

So I found myself in a rather sweet looking $200 game with 3 very fishy looking players. Fortunately for me, two of them decide to get involved in a big pot that develops early on in the tournament.

PRE-FLOP

So I’m dealt A-7o in the BB and facing a limp and a min-raise. I’m getting 4.5 to 1 immediate odds which are pretty good but there’s close to 0 chance the limper will be folding when the action is back on him since he’ll be getting even better odds than he was before entering the pot, so giving effective pot odds of 5.5 to 1, I feel this is a mandatory call. I will just have to proceed with caution upon hitting an A and realise it definitely may be no good. In the 8 hands of this tournament the limper’s VPIP is 75% with a PR of 13% so I’m not worried about him pumping it up when the action’s back on him since he seems the passive type. It costs me very little to play, and on the chance of hitting something good I can potentially gain an excellent return on my 20 chip investment. Oh, and I also have both opponent’s marked a “red” colour which in my system means “HUGE FISH”, so my implied odds could be pretty devastating too.

FLOP:  9d—2c—3c

There’s really not much to talk about in this street, I’ve got a backdoor flush and straight draw but still only a fairly weak A high which could easily be behind. Given this and the fact I’m OOP my plan will be to check-fold to any bet from any opponent. The action checks round.

TURN:  Jc

I’ve now turned the nut flush draw, and given there was no interest from either player on the flop, I figure this is a good semi-bluffing spot. This is preferred to check-calling a bet since it offers me the chance at winning the pot immediately and if I’m called I still have the chance to improve on the river. So I fire a bet of 75 into 130, just over half the pot, and not really surprisingly both players call.

RIVER:  5c

BoOoOooOm, I’ve backed into the nut flush, so the question now is how to play it? How can I maximise my $EV with the nuts OOP? For the record, it’s not strictly the nuts, 4c-6c is a straight flush but quite frankly I’m more worried about being hit by lightning than running into that hand. So I considered the fact that both opponent’s called my bet on the turn – this makes it reasonably likely one of them was holding the K or Q high flush draw, and a quick peak at their red rings reminding me they’re both huge fish I decide to make an uncharacteristic bet of 1445 into a 355 pot. I figure it’s unlikely either player will be able to fold the 2^nd or 3^rd nuts to any bet, so if I’m going for value, I might as well go all out – it would be pretty tragic to pot 355 and only receive a flat from a Q high flush which may well have called an all-in. I did mention Bowl 1’s VPIP was 75% in the short span of the game didn’t I?

The Result

Bowl 1 calls…and then bowl 2 calls, oh-oh, time to get worried by that 4c-6c? Nope, bowl 1 shows the Kc and bowl 2 just couldn’t resist donating the rest of his stack with the Qc with two stacks all-in before him in a 4x overbet pot. Sometimes against fish who aren’t folding #1’s biggest fan, the best play is just to shove it. Needless to say, such a bet doesn't need to get called a high % of the time to show decent profit; if I were to have bet around the size of the pot I would need to get called around four times more often than the overbet to show an identical profit in the long run. My 20 chip investment before the flop allowed me to take down a pot worth 3421 in chips, yielding a nice stack which would later help me go on to win the tournament.

I told you my implied odds pre-flop were pretty devastating.

Live long and prosper

The Post-Oak Bluff – An insight into post-flop play

STARRING: FLOPZILLA!!!!!!!

The post-oak bluff was first introduced in poker legend Doyle Brunson’s Super System back in 1979. It is defined as “a very small bet relative to the size of the already-existing pot and may be employed as an attempt at using reverse psychology to steal the pot”.

In his book, the legend brands this as a “gutless” and “weak” play insisting it’s one he would never make. I may be no legend but I beg to differ with the godfather of poker on this one and think this is a great weapon to have in your arsenal. I had a hand come up recently I thought was a legitimate spot to execute this play so hopefully the following example with my analysis is enough to prove the big man wrong!

Hand played on Pokerstars

Seat 5 is the button

Seat 1: Player 2 ( $2140.00 USD )

Seat 2: Hero ( $1635.00 USD )

Seat 3: Player 3 ( $1760.00 USD )

Seat 4: Villain ( $1435.00 USD )

Seat 5: Player 4 ( $650.00 USD )

Seat 6: Player 5 ( $1380.00 USD )

Player 5 posts small blind [$10.00 USD].

Player 2 posts big blind [$20.00 USD].

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to Hero [  Jd Td ]

Hero raises [$60.00 USD]

Player 3 folds

Villain calls [$60.00 USD]

Player 4 calls [$60.00 USD]

Player 5 folds

Player 2 folds

** Dealing Flop ** [ 6s, 3d, 4d ]

Hero bets [$125.00 USD]

Villain calls [$125.00 USD]

Player 4 folds

** Dealing Turn ** [ 2s ]

Hero bets [$280.00 USD]

Villain calls [$280.00 USD]

** Dealing River ** [ 2h ]

Hero bets [$262.00 USD]

Villain folds

Hero wins $262.00 USD

Hero wins $1020.00 USD from main pot

Before discussing the merit of the post-oak bluff which is on the river in this hand, I’ll talk through each betting round as they occurred.

PRE-FLOP

So I’m dealt 10-J suited UTG 6 handed and it’s early on in the SNG. A lot of good players will fold and I definitely couldn’t fault that. However, occasionally I like to open hands like these from EP to balance my range – if I’m only opening around the top 5% of hands or so from EP I can never expect to get paid off with my big hands against a good player who is observant and looking at opening %s from various positions. J-10 suited is the kind of hand you want to balance your range with since it plays so well post-flop, unlike something like A-8o/A-7o which is dominated so much more of the time when called and doesn’t flop as well.

So I have two callers and it looks like I’ll be playing out of position post-flop.

FLOP: 6s-3d-4d

So it’s a pretty good flop for me, I’ve got two overcards and a flush draw giving me a total of 15 outs with two cards to come. This will give me around 55% equity in the hand assuming all of my outs are good. My overcards of course may not be good but betting will make them good in some instances where A-J/K-J/A-10 may fold as I'm blocking those potential flush draws. Since this is a pretty innocent flop and has likely missed both opponent’s ranges along with the fact I have the initiative in the hand having raised pre-flop it’s definitely a spot to lead. Besides, check-calling would typically look like a draw since I’m the one that opened the hand pre-flop and the norm is to c-bet. I lead for a little over half pot at 125 into 210 and receive one caller. I’m not really in tears about this given how much equity I have and if the caller is a fish then I’m just building my own implied odds with the bet and ensuring maximum value in the final betting round if I hit.

Villain has a VPIP of 61% and AF of 1.0 – granted over only 18 hands these numbers are pretty meaningless but they do suggest he will be a loose-passive player. This means it won’t be as tough playing out of position in future rounds since we won’t expect villain to utilise his positional advantage and aggress all that much. It also means we can expect his calling range on this innocent board to be pretty wide.

What kind of range am I assigning villain?

When he calls I’m expecting a lot of overcards that have missed entirely, he may even have some flush draws (better or worse) too and pairs that have hit sets on this board as well as A-x pairs on the board. Again, granted his VPIP % is only based on a very small sample so is by no means a true reflection but it’s all the information we have so it’s all we can go by. So it’s off to the turn…

TURN: 2s

Shit, the straight’s came, time to check and hopefully get to a free river? No…A lot of people will check here and I think it’s a mistake. His VPIP is 61% so we’re expecting him to have a shit load of hands he’s called with on the flop; hands that have a 5 in it only constitute a very small part of that range – 5s/A-5o/A-5s so I’m not overly worried. You might also think with his high VPIP why bet the turn if he’s loose and likely to call again? With the equity our hand still has we would be able to check-call most bets up to pot, so if your hand is worth check-calling a bet it’s usually best betting yourself since it offers the opportunity of winning immediately which check-calling doesn’t. And again, if he calls we are continuing to build our own implied odds and giving ourselves the best chance of maximum payoff on the river should we hit.

So, I opt for a bet of little over half pot again, 280 into 460, and he calls. There’s now 1020 chips in the middle and it’s off to the river.

RIVER: 2h

So the river pairs the board and we have missed our hand. The 2 makes it much less likely 2s/A-2 is in his range. Nonetheless, I’m expecting him to call the turn with the majority of hands he called the flop with – he may toss some overcards on the turn like K-Q/Q-J/J-10 but it’s really tough to know. More importantly, I’ve missed my hand, I’m OOP and the action is on me…Spot to give up and check or spot to bluff, and if so, how much?

Flopzilla analysis

Firstly, to look into the merits of whether this is a legitimate spot to bluff or not, I’ve looked at the situation in a piece of software called Flopzilla. This allows you to develop insight into how certain ranges hit certain boards and will show you in what ways and how often that range hits that board. Obviously the reliability of its data is entirely dependent on your subjective estimation of your opponent’s hand range, but hey, thinking about ranges is better than not thinking about ranges even if you’re completely wrong and is a skill that can be developed over time.

In this hand, I have assigned villain a subjective range of hands which constitute 24.7% of cards – this includes: 2s-7s/A-2o-A-Ko/A-2s-Aks and some middle ranked suited hands and some overcards like K-Qo/K-Jo. So, when comparing this range to the board and this is where flopzilla comes in, 39.4% of the time he will have A high and 29.5% of the time he will have complete air – combined that’s 68.9%. If we stick in a bet of 262 into the pot of 1020, we’ll only have to win the pot around 1 in 6 times to show immediate profit. Basically, we only need him to be folding as little as 16.66% of the time or more to win money and with the fact he’ll have a nothing-hand 68.9% of the time based on our subjective assignment of his hand range, then it clearly makes it a profitable spot to lead for a post-oak bluff. Okay, he may call with A high meaning we might only win at 29.5% at worst (and even then it’s still a profitable bet) but it’s also our fourth barrel in the hand so I wouldn’t count on it. To some opponent’s it will really look like a luring bet as well that’s crying out “call me” so folding A high definitely wouldn’t be unreasonable.

So, 262 into 1020 I lead and villain folds, BoOooOOooOoMmm – profit!!
Notice that my river bet was smaller than the turn bet.

So what’s so good about the post-oak bluff? Why is a small bet the best in this example?

Aside from the fact we have to win the pot so little of the time to profit (and infact, we could afford to lose our next 5 bluffs in this exact same spot and still break-even) I am not expecting villain to fold any of his range that has connected with this board to ANY bet size (hands such as sets, overpairs, straights and one pair A-x hands). if this is true and along with the fact that the times he has complete air and can’t call any bet whether it’s full pot or 1/5^th of pot then it only makes sense to bet a tiny amount so you are losing less chips the times you are called when you run into those made hands in his range. Besides, with this guy’s high VPIP I’m not expecting him to fold even A-3 or A-4 so there’s no incentive to increase the size of our bluff if simply all his made hands will call and all his air hands will fold. It may sound fairly contradictory talking about building our own implied odds on the turn for a potentially big river pay-off against a player with a high VPIP and then going on to bluff him, but given that he will still have a shit load of nothing a high % of the time it actually makes perfect sense.

You often see player’s betting 80%/90% of pot because it “looks stronger” or is “more likely to induce folds” or because they don’t really know and aren’t thinking about ranges, but if your bet is targeted at folding out a portion of your opponent’s range that can’t call any bet then you should be thinking about risking the minimum and saving yourself some chips and $ in the long run.  

And Doyle branded this a "weak" and "gutless" play...*tut tut*...Back to school methinks!

MikeyMcD45